Optical Illusion? Or a Morph?

Today’s post takes a “break” from any real thoughts or ideas. Instead, have some fun with the image above.

If you believe you’re looking at Albert Einstein, just take a few steps back from your computer screen, to about 10 or 15 feet.

Whoa, that’s not Einstein; it’s morphed into Marilyn Monroe.

You can explain it if you want to. I’m just content observing the phenomenon.

Avoiding the “Herd Instinct” of Unnecessarily Anxious Americans

One of the first lessons I can remember learning from my mom was, “Don’t follow the crowd.” Her advice, of course, was focused on teaching me the difference between right and wrong and on the importance of doing right even though everyone else was doing wrong.

But not following the crowd can have a host of other benefits as well, not the least of which is monetary. Take the current gasoline price issue. Everyone, it seems, is freaking out over spiking gas pump numbers.

Some families have cancelled summer driving vacations. Some of my fellow-retirees are worried that they won’t be able to drive beyond going to the store. A lot of people are completely rearranging the way they spend money (not a bad idea anyway). But is this really necessary?

Today I heard on the news an example of the “herd instinct” to which I referred in the headline. I’m not picking on Californians, but that’s where this story came from. It seems some auto dealers there who sell high-gas-mileage hybrids are pocketing up to a $6,000 premium per vehicle (above MSRP) on the Toyota Prius and other such hybrids – because apparently people will “pay anything” to cut gas costs. Huh?

Now, wait a minute, folks. The tendency of Americans to panic in unison and flock to make questionable decisions, has always amazed me. Why in the world would a person pay a $6,000 premium, not to mention a $30,000 auto expenditure, to “save” money? Has anyone bothered to do the math?

Actually, my son Gregg did so about a year ago. With his older Caravan all worn out anyway, he bought a very nice, pre-owned Toyota Prius that he says gets about 35 miles per gallon overall average. It’s obvious he and Elaine made a wise move back then – and it holds true especially now.

But back to the math on what’s generally happening around the gas pump. Let’s look at a theoretical example. If you drive a paid-for car that gets an average 18 miles per gallon (like I do), your annual gas cost (at today’s $4/gallon national average) is $2,222 for each 10,000 miles you drive. Your car’s amortization is a separate issue and is only affected (goes UP) if you buy or lease a new vehicle.

If you DO acquire a new hybrid vehicle that averages 30 miles per gallon (like the pictured Ford Escape Hybrid I’ve looked at) your gas costs for each 10,000 miles will drop to $1,333 if gas remains at $4/gal. That’s a savings of $889 on gas per 10,000 miles.

But it cost you $36,000 for the privilege (much more in some cases), ignoring, for a moment, the plummeted trade-in value of your present gas-guzzler. Does this make any economic sense?

Now before you start yelling that commuters can drive 50,000 miles or more a year, I fully acknowledge that the situation is somewhat different if you drive a lot. However, in this example, you’d only break even after driving 400,000 miles and only begin to have actual savings after that. To put it another way, there are no savings until you’ve driven your new hybrid for 400,000 miles! How many YEARS will it take for you to drive 400,000 miles?

If gas prices continue to rise to $6/gal, as some have predicted they will by Labor Day, there will still be little cause to think about an immediate hybrid. Because even at that, the breakeven point (on a $36,000 hybrid) is at 270,000 miles. That's a lot of miles, folks, even if you reduce it by the slimmed-down value of your trade-in.

What does all this mean? By Fall, even if you drive 100,000 miles a year, it'll take you a little more than TWO AND ONE-HALF YEARS before you'll actually save money over your present vehicle (assuming the aforementioned conditions). And even if gas prices continue to rise after that, all that happens is that the breakeven mileage point will correspondingly continue to drop, but at the same slow rate.

So, if you’re like my wife and me, who barely drive 12,000 miles a year in our retirement (a lifestyle, not a car), it’s probably far better not to panic into a new hybrid and to just drive our 18 mpg “guzzler” with a light foot. It'll cost us 35-cents a mile for gas in the Fall, if all goes as predicted. When the Acura wears out, hopefully not before some time has passed, we’ll then calmly and rationally consider a Ford Escape Hybrid, rather like my son did. And we'll avoid running over the money cliff right now with the crowd.

What Happens When We Die? (We Don’t Go To "Heaven", Suggests N.T. Wright)

I’ve just started reading another “blockbuster” book by my favorite theologian/author, Anglican Bishop N. T. Wright. In his just published Surprised By Hope - Rethinking Heaven, the Resurrection, and the Mission of the Church, he tackles all the tough questions and wraps it all in a powerful message of hope.

Does “resurrection” have meaning here on earth? Is there life after death? What are our post-mortem options? Is it either heaven or hell? Where is heaven? Where is hell? What will happen to the earth?

I’m not far enough into the book to begin to give you an inkling yet of his contemplations. However, I do know that his conclusions are not based on “near death experiences,” nor on what is usually (inaccurately) said at funerals, nor on speculation.

His views, instead, reflect historical Christian orthodoxy, but they are concepts and truths that Wright says have become distorted in the current accumulation of folk wisdom. What most Christians believe today about life after death, he observes, is a “vague and fuzzy optimism that somehow things may work out in the end.”

This is not to be ignored, he says, and I expect the book will endeavor to clear up some of our foggy thinking. Stay tuned…

Chancing Upon the Numinous

Until recently, I was relatively unfamiliar with the term “numinous”. I heard it used again in an adult ed class at church, and, interestingly, the context made the word even more convoluted in my mind. (The mind is one of the few places where you can convolute things.)

I have since discovered that German theologian Rudolf Otto first coined the term 90 years ago in his book, Das Heilige.

I am purposely avoiding defining the term for you, because it’s an interesting exercise to check your favorite source and discover for yourself what it means.

I will offer a clue: if you’ve ever been in a situation where you became aware that there might be more going on than what your five senses were perceiving, you may yourself have come into contact with “the numinous”.